Saturday, March 08, 2008

Starting the trading

[Just a reminder, add the SABBL label to any baseball posts. It will help later on].

The RockOrioles (aka the Weavers) have 'excess' pitching. Twelve pitchers, actually. An ugly miscount. I'd like to trade two pitchers for one pitcher and one Position player (or possibly two position players). Most trades may involve an extra player to balance (giving up some OPS to balance a trade, etc).

I think we can get mutually beneficial trades. My 3rd (or 4th) best reliever may be better than your second.

Starting Position Players [OPS]
C Victor Martinez 4e5 (0) [.879 Switch Hitter]
1B Ryan Garko 4e11 [.842] (Garret Atkins may start, don't know).
2B Orlando Hudson 1e12 [.817 Switch Hitter]
3B Mike Lowell 1e16 [.877]
DH Moises Alou (4e8 (+1) LF) [.918]
SS Orlando Cabrera 1e12 [ .742]
LF Matt Holliday 3e3 (0) [1.012]
CF Carlos Beltran 1e6 (-3) [.878 Switch]
RF Jeff Francoer 1e5 (-4) [.782]

Backups
Garret Atkins 1st, 3rd [.853]
Mark Derosa -- Everywhere, [.791]
OF Cliff Floyd [.793]
C Mike Napoli 3e12 (0) [.794]

Starters:
Barry Zito (LHP S(6))
Tim Lincecum (RHP S(6)
Jason Marquis (RHP S(6))
Matt Cain (RHP S(7))
Jake Westbrook (RHP S(6))
Micah Owings (RHP S(6), R(3)/N)

Relievers:
Manny Corpas (RHP (1)/4)
Pedro Feliciano (LHP (1)/1)
Billy Wagner (LHP (1)/6)
Mariano Rivera (RHP (1)/6)
Juan Cruz (RHP (2)/N)
Carlos Marmol (RHP (2)/0)

Incidentally, I do like my team, although I'm fragile. Going strictly by the STAR draft sheet, I got a great catcher, great 2B, good 3B, good SS, Great LF & CF, (Moises at DH is fine). Francoer is a light bat, but a good arm, making him an OK late pick. My top 5 relievers are ranked from #58-105 (and we're probably missing 1/3rd of the ranked players). But starters ... whoo.


Chris and I played a pre-season game and it (thankfully) went like I said. Micah Owings took the start against John Smoltz and, after two innings I was down 4-3 ... but that settled it until we went into the bullpen (which features two of the scariest cards in the game ... Rafael Betancourt for Chris vs. Carlos Marmol for me. Martinez managed to hit the only extra base spot on Betancourt and the Beltran popped one over the short-right field wall at Camden. I think I won 6-4. Earl Weaver would be proud.

Anyway, I'm not going to play my first regular season game until we've had time to look at trading (and I need to get L/R splits, etc), but I'd be willing to do a pre-season game (or two) one evening. Not monday, natch.

Labels:

32 Comments:

At 7:35 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger Brian said...

And I almost forgot again (after I forgot at Chris's house, and then posted twice).

1) Thanks to Chris again for hosting (and yelling at Mr. Black, when necessary).

2) I figure if we each chip $6 at Dennis, that will cover the cost of breaking up his set. (Alternately, we could call it a security deposit).

 
At 8:06 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger Dennis Ugolini said...

By the way, on an X result, Derrek Lee has a 31/216 = 14% chance of committing an error. So on three chances, the odds of three errors are 337 to 1. Nice rolling, Chris.

 
At 8:14 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger scott said...

So where does one find the STAR draft list/rankings/ratings? Or the all in (aka offense and fielding combined) WORP or VORP; and does anybody have WORP or VORP adjusted to show efficiency (ie taking out quantity of innings)? I am certainly up to trade and for pre season games as well. However for the former I am not quite sure of the hole to fill and for the latter I am probably talking about next weekend.
Starting Position Players [OPS]
C Jorge Posada 2(0)e4 [.969 Switch Hitter]
1B Ryan Howard 4e14 [.976]
2B kaz matsui 2e6 [.747 Switch Hitter steal AA]
3B chone figgins 3e22 [.825 switch steal AA]
DH david ortiz (5e25 1b) [1.066]
SS Hanley Ramirez 4e27 [.948, steal AA]
LF Manny Ramirez 4 (-1) e3 .881]
CF Johnny Damon 4 (+2) e4 .747 steal A
RF Vlad Guerrero 4 (-3) e14 [.950]

Backups
Matt Diaz
Josh Barfield
Chris Young
Alredo Amezaga
Ramon Hernandez
Omar Vizquel

Starters: Francis left, rest right; all 6's
Jeff Francis
Dustin McGowan
Zambrano
Chien-ming wang
kyle kendrick

Relievers:
Casey Janssen 2/3
Kevin Gregg 2/5
Brandon Lyon 1/1
Francisco Rodriguez 1/6
scott downs 1/0 left

 
At 8:41 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Oh, and I am sure it goes without saying but there is no harm in starting at the top of my wish list from your squad Brian; I would be interested in trading you Manny Ramirez plus an upgrade to you somewhere else for mr. holliday.

 
At 8:58 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger Chris said...

By the way, on an X result, Derrek Lee has a 31/216 = 14% chance of committing an error. So on three chances, the odds of three errors are 337 to 1. Nice rolling, Chris.

I think this is the start of a very bad year for Mr. Lee.

 
At 9:38 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

I like my team - I did what I set out to do... there's room for improvement, but that's the nature of a draft, especially with (have I mentioned) my lack of MLB knowledge.

I'm interested in acquiring a good DH, upgrading one of my starting pitchers, improving 3b, and anywhere I can get a little more batting power. More interested in OBP than slugging...

I've got room to move a pretty decent catcher, a utility player, or a relief/closer.

C Bengie Molina 2e2(-1) [731]
1B Casey Kotchman 1e4 [839]
2B Dustin Pedroida 2e8 [822]
SS Jimmy Rollins 1e12 [875]
3B Melvin Mora 3e14 [759]
LF Josh Willingham 4e4 (0)[827]
CF Grady Sizemore 1e2 (0) [852]
RF Shane Victorina 1e5 (-3) [770]

Backup
C Brian McCann 2e6(0) [772]
Kevin Millar 1b, lf [785]
Ryan Theriot ss/2b/3b/lf/rf [672]
Bobby Abreu rf4e2(-2) [814]
Melky Cabrera cf/lf/rf 3e5 (-2) [718]S

Starters:
Jeremy Guthrie (RHP S(6), r(3)/N)
Roy Hallady (RHP S(7))
Ted Lilly (LHP(6))
Jered Weaver (RHP(6))
Kyle Lohse (RHP(6), r(3)/N)

Relievers:
Brian Fuentes (LHP (1)/4)
Aaron Heilman (RHP (2)/0)
Hideki Okajima (LHP (1)/3)
Jeremy Accardo (RHP (1)/5)
Mike Timlin (RHP (1)/0)
Mike Wuertz (RHP (2)/N)
Brian Wolfe (RHP (2)/N)

 
At 10:14 PM, March 08, 2008, Blogger Brian said...

I don't particularly feel like giving up Messr. Holliday ... it would have to be a hell of a pitching upgrade to swap Matt for Manny. You know, at Camden yards he'd actually have to catch the ball instead of playing off the wall...

The star draft is at www.startournaments.com (along with other resources).

 
At 6:16 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

So I'll throw my team up there. I will give defensive ratings and availability number (* if it is over 600) for position players, fatigue ratings for pitchers, and ops splits for everyone. Obviously pitchers are ops against splits.

Starters (there is a platoon situation in RF)

C: Zaun 3(+2)e2 382 745/797
1b: Youkilis 1e0 * 854/815 (3b 4e39)
2b: Cano 3e13 * 831/864
SS: Tulowitzki 2e12 * 827/918
3b: Wright 2e22 * 908/1106
LF: Burrell 4(0)e14 586 881/950
CF: Taveras 2(-3)e8 393 708/877
RF: Drew 2(-1)e8 545 846/638 (cf 3e8)
Werth 3(-2)e5 299 760/1058 (lf 2e5, 1b 4e25)
DH: Cabrera * 910/1173 (3b 4e25)

Backups:
Kendall (C 2(+3)e1) 193 642/523
Uggla (2b 4e11) * 799/829
Renteria (SS 3e16) 540 827/918
Escobar (SS 3e16, 2b 3e27, 3b 3e37) 346 811/870
Jones (CF 3(+2)e6, RF 3e6, LF 3e6) 487 727/763
Thomas * 796/1062

Pitchers
Beckett S7 641/684
Hudson S7 646/673
Maine S6 653/759
Schilling S6 725/765
Pettite S6 R3/N 727/836
Perez R2/0 580/450
Herges R2/N 555/654
Villone R2/N 678/654
Chulk R1/N 656/813

Notes:

Anyone is available, but some are more available than others.

Most both attractive and available backups:
Frank Thomas: LHP mashing DH. Certified badass. Doesn't rest.
Uggla: Power hitting 2b. Doesn't rest.
Renteria: Average fielding SS, good hitting SS.

Others are either not as attractive or are going to be harder to pries away because of their utility to me.

Things I am interested in:
A 6th starter or possibly an upgrade to Pettite. A 6th starter would allow me to flex Pettite into the bullpen or into the rotation as needed for certain teams. An upgrade to Pettite could be eitherhandedness, but needs to be an upgrade. I would prefer a right handed starter.

Relief pitching. I would like at least one more relief pitcher with a /#. If I manage to pick up an additional starter, then this would be an trade of one of my current relievers.

My other main interest is center field.

Ideally, after trading I will have a net gain of one pitcher and a net loss of one position player.

So to summarize:

I have excess at 3b, DH, SS and 2b.

You have excess at RP and CF.

We should talk.

Note, I have no idea who this addressed to.

 
At 6:19 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

And in the above, the first split is vs. RH.

Also note that Zaun's OPS vs. right is not exactly right because I'm a lazy bastard and didn't feel like factoring in his 5 plate appearances vs RHP as a right handed batter.

Also note that, despite my dead behind the eyes catchers (Jon knows what I'm talking about) I'm content with the catcher situation for now.

If a top tier catcher is offered though, I will listen.

 
At 6:56 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Also, can somebody post what the 6 results for rest checks are?

When it was described to me originally, I thought the set of 3 players was chosen uniformly at random from your starting lineup so didn't really think much about it.

So for instance for me, the outfield and C are the only positions that are vulnerable to rest checks.

But if there is a die roll that is rest all your outfielders, I could conceivably be totally screwed.

I'm assuming that the roll results are typically of the form
1 OF
1 IF
1 C/DH/1B

As that would create the least overlap in resting. But I want to verify.

Also to verify:
300 is always rest 600 is always start. So every 15 gives you 1 extra pip on the d20 to be safe? Or is it not linear? It didn't feel linear today because my 393 CF needed a 19? on his rest checks to get to play. I guess linear wouldn't make the most sense. But yeah, getting ranges for that would be nice just so I can do more planning. At some point I want to translate my AB+BB totals to just d20 targets for ease of checks.

 
At 8:08 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Chris said...

Don't worry, on the rest checks, no more than 1 outfielder can be forced to sit a game.

1 - CF, 3B, DH
2 - SS, RF, 1B
3 - 2B, CA, LF
4 - SS, LF, 1B
5 - 2B, RF, DH
6 - CF, CA, 3B

The rest chances are not linear.
The rolls are done by groups of 25 (AB+BB), but the progression is
1-374: 1-20 (ALWAYS SITS)
375-399: 1-19
400-424: 1-18
425-449: 1-15
450-474: 1-13
475-499: 1-10
500-524: 1-8
525-549: 1-6
550-574: 1-3
575-599: 1
600+ : NEVER SITS

 
At 9:54 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Brian,
Ok, how about Damon + a really big upgrade somewhere else for you for Beltran?
Scott

 
At 10:00 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Sean,
Hanley Ramirez and Johnny Damon for Jimmy Rollins and Grady Sizemore?
Scott

 
At 10:04 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Chris said...

Stupid duplicate posts.

I don't think I'm looking for anything at this point, primarily because I'm not sure what I could give up. But I'll post it anyway in case someone wants to give me a trade I can't refuse, like giving me Julio Lugo for my Alex ("No, really, I'm clutch! Really!")Rodriguez. That would be great.

Starters [OPS]
C Yorvit Torrealba 2(0)e1 [.699]
1B Derrek "Buckner" Lee 1e8 [.913]
2B Aaron Hill 2e14 [.792]
3B Alex Rodriguez 2e14 [1.067]
SS J-honny Peralta 3e21 [.771]
DH Troy Glaus (1b-4e14) [.839]
LF Reggie Willits 3(0)e5 [.735]
CF Aaron Rowand 1(0)e2 [.889]
RF Alex Rios 2(-3)e7 [.852]

Backups
Chris Snyder C/1B/LF
Corey Patterson CF
Macier Izturis 3B/2B/SS
Casey Blake 3B/RF/1B

Starters [ERA]
John Smoltz RH St(6) [3.11]
Erik Bedard LH St(6) [3.16]
Noah Lowry LH St(6) [3.92]
Cole Hamels LH St(7) [3.39]
Rich Hill LH St(6) [3.92]

Relievers
Kevin Correia RH Re(3)/3, St(6)
[3.45]
Rafael Soriano RH Re(1)/3 [3.00]
Matt Lindstrom RH Re(1)/N [3.09]
Jose Valverde RH Re(1)/6 [2.66]
Jamie Walker LH Re(1)/3 [3.23]
Rafael Betancourt RH Re(2)/2 [1.47]
Jonathan Papelbon RH Re(1)/6 [1.85]

(I didn't realize until now that I have four LH starters...oh well)

 
At 10:38 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Michael,

Casey Janssen and Kaz Matsui for Dan Uggla and Rafael Perez?

Kevin Gregg and Kaz Matsui for Robinson Cano and Matt Herges?

Jeff Francis and Chone Figgins for M Cabrera 3b and Andy Pettite?

Carlos Zambrano and Chone Figgins for David Wright and Andy Pettite?

Scott

 
At 11:07 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Chris,
Needless to say when you get too sick of Choke Rod choking I would be more then happy to trade for him to take my shot at choking the choking out of him.
Scott

 
At 11:15 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Michael,
Actually, I am not sure about the Uggla deal, I still have to get a better idea of the defensive impact before I could swing that.
Scott

 
At 11:44 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Chris said...

Michael, check your Geekmail, I sent you a trade proposal there.

 
At 11:45 AM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Chris said...

BTW, I am looking to trade a reliever/closer for a DH.

 
At 1:57 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

For whatever it is worth what I am looking for trading wise is to make my team a better match for my stadium. What I think this means is offensively to get Normal power everywhere so in my case 3b, 2b, and cf (cf is already N vs. right) and to increase OBP even at the expense of SLG. Defensively it means trying to upgrade wherever I can (other then C and 2b where I am fine); but especially at ss and cf. Pitching wise it means I am looking for lower whip even at the expense of giving up more bigger hits.

 
At 2:04 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

who ended up with Bonds? Helton?

 
At 5:45 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Scott, to be honest all those trades are wildly unbalanced in your favor.

 
At 7:09 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Dennis has helton Jon has bonds

 
At 8:10 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger scott said...

Michael,

What you indicated that you were looking for that I could potentially help with would be pitching upgrades. The best starting pitcher upgrade I can come up with would be Wang for Pettite and if I can afford the fielding downgrade that might work with Matsui for Uggla. That shouldn't be unbalanced but I would need to do more due diligence on the fielding impact. If you would prefer one of my other starting pitchers just let me know. As for relievers I think the best upgrade I could come up would be Janssen for Villone (although again if you would rather get a different reliever or would rather give up a different one just let me know). I think that would roughly balance with Matsui for Cano; again I have to look at the fielding impact. You might not be interested but it should not be considered unbalanced. Finally if I do both pitching upgrades I would think that would balance with Figgins for Wright or Cabrera. Let me know what you think and thanks for the information on Helton and Bonds.

 
At 10:41 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Lemme ask something unrelated to trading.

Is the situation currently that every rockies position player from last year is starting on one of our teams?

I'm so proud.

 
At 10:53 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Also, while I don't think there is a rate version of the WARP counting stat, but the obvious idea would be to divide the WARP by the number of games played, although that is clearly not perfect.

For rating DHs I think I prefer a more archaic tool such as Runs Created Per 27 outs.

For the most part though, if people just give OPS splits, that gives a decent general idea of the performance at the plate, and the defense is summarized nicely by the defensive rating.

Also, consider me highly offended that Rollins is rated higher than Tulowitzki in the field for last year.

 
At 11:20 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

Scott,

Good offer, but I'm going to stick with defense up the middle. I might sacrifice some defense left and right for power, but don't want to trade away my 1's and 2's up the middle...

 
At 11:22 PM, March 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Based on Chris's rest information:

Ideal net result of trading:

+1 pitcher
+1 outfielder
-2 infielder/DH

 
At 7:02 AM, March 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Just so everyone knows.

VORP never includes fielding.

The different varieties of WARP always include fielding. The differences are:

WARP-1: vanilla
WARP-2: adjusted for league difficulty (AL vs. NL)
WARP-3: adjusted for season length

So the all encompassing WARP statistic that includes fielding is: any of them.

Sorry I missed your question earlier.

Thats why you can see that Hanley Ramirez's VORP is out of this world, but his WARP is good but not insane.

All these stats are available on baseballprospectus, but I don't know of a way to get sortable WARP stats. The best way to get them quickly is just to go by team.

But given that Strat does odd stuff like give Rollins a better fielding rating than Tulowitzki, there are no guarantees that any WARP is an accurate predictor of overall performance in our league.

 
At 1:02 PM, March 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

I'm still hoping Jon and Dennis are planning on posting their full teams.

 
At 11:58 PM, March 10, 2008, Blogger Jonathan W. said...

Not sure that I am looking for much trades right now, but here are all of my guys:

Splits are (Left/Right)

Starters:
DH Barry Bonds (0.991/0.1073)
3B Chipper Jones (0.803/1.171)
RF Brad Hawpe (0.670/1.002)
1B Matt Stairs (0.818/0.931)
CF Alfonso Soriano (0.825/0.917)
LF Hideki Matsui (0.814/0.872)
SS Derek Jeter (0.876/0.830)
2B Brian Roberts (0.727/0.841)
C Carlos Ruiz (0.576/0.786)

Bench:
1B/LF/3B Conor Jackson (0.958/0.785)
CF/LF Dave Roberts (0.408/0.763)
CF Coco Crisp (0.751/0.697)
C Paul Lo Duca (0.876/0.614)

Starters (ERA):
Brandon Webb (3.01) RH7
Fausto Carmona (3.06) RH7
A.J. Burnett (3.75) RH7
Chuck James (4.24) LH5
Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.40) LH6

Relief:
Peter Moylan (1.80) RH(2)/0
Justin Speier (2.88) RH(1)/0
Bob Howry (3.32) RH(1)/3
Chad Bradford (3.34) RH(1)/1
LaTroy Hawkins (3.42) RH(1)/0
Kyle Farnsworth (4.80) RH(1)/0
Armando Benitez (5.36) RH(1)/3

 
At 9:57 PM, March 13, 2008, Blogger scott said...

anybody up for 3 for 3 I send you my top right handed starter; my top right handed reliever; and Hanley Ramirez and you send me your top left handed starter; your top left handed reliever and your top fielding shortstop? Subject to seeing the actual players I think such a deal could benefit both sides and make sense. Let me know if this sounds plausible to you.

 

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