Monday, September 08, 2008

Crimes Against Probability

The Leftorium (my SABBL team) fell from 11-10 to 11-13 after a sweep by Sean/Scott's team that would have crushed the spirit of even the most bad-beat-hardened poker pro. Some examples:

- In Game 1, C.C. Sabathia gave up four runs on the first five at-bats and lost 7-4.
- In Game 2, I rolled on the pitcher's card 24 of my first 29 at-bats, en route to a 1-0 loss. In the 9th I hit my batting cards three times: ballpark single, lineout, double play.
- In Game 3, I lost 11-1 despite matching Scott in hits. I stranded 11 runners, while Scott's fifth inning began something like Error, Single on 1-4 split, Single on 1-2 split, Error, Single on 1-4 split.

Afterwards I watched the tail end of a Shadows Over Camelot game using the Merlin's Company expansion. Sneaky traitor Brian looked to have the game in hand, leading 6-4 in swords and having as many as nine siege engines. But Sean came up with the idea of having everyone mass on the dragon for the last two swords, and played the "everyone teleport to my quest" card to enforce his will. The good guys won 6-6 in swords, thanks to the "we win ties" card Jon had played to much derision thirty minutes earlier.

I joined the second game, making seven players, which allows for two traitors. Despite an early rush of Despair cards, we picked off Excalibur and the Grail in rapid succession, and appeared to be winning so easily that we suspected their might be no traitors. Eventually Sean revealed himself with a Fate card and tried to run up the siege engine count, getting to 10 before we roped things under control. Second traitor Brian tried knocking us off a quest as a last gasp, but Jon's accusation (after he nearly killed half the group by drawing a black card) finished the job 11-1.

I liked the game with the expansion, but then again I liked the game *without* the expansion, so you'll have to ask others how much it improved things. We played the travel cards wrong, so that might change future games.


At 12:01 AM, September 09, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

So unconditional probability is 1/36 no traitor, 7/18 exactly one traitor and 7/12 exactly 2 traitors (that adds up to one right? I hope?)

Conditional probability of two traitors given that there is at least one traitor is (7/12)/(35/36) = 3/5. Since the probability of no traitors is so low, that isn't a substantial difference from the unconditional case.

But please check that arithmetic. This was done without a calculator and you have all seen my (in)ability to perform menial calculations.

Whatevah, I do what I want. I'll go to lancelot with only 4 fight cards.

At 7:20 AM, September 09, 2008, Blogger Dennis Ugolini said...

Your math is correct, Michael. Converting to percentages:

No traitor = 5.6%
One traitor = 38.9%
Two traitors = 58.3%
Second traitor, given one revealed = 60%

A couple of other fun events from the baseball series:

- Aramis Ramirez had two home runs robbed at the wall. Both would've been outs without the advanced rule, but designating them as robberies rubs salt in the wound.

- With one out an a man on second, I roll a fly(cf)X check and get a rare play. My center fielder makes the catch, but runs into the wall at full speed and knocks himself unconscious, scoring the man on second.

At 9:39 AM, September 09, 2008, Blogger Tiffany said...

While baseball was ongoing, I played Agricola with Brian, Chris, and the late arriving Sean. It was nice to actually use my game set, and I like the convenience of the pre sorted resources, but maybe that it just me.

I still am not fantastic at the game, scoring 1 point less then my Saturday achieved high game, but that was not so bad. Sean discovered my favorite card, the sycophant, and monopolized, mostly, the grain industry (I do not like being on the OTHER side of that card, i will admit), Brian had a sheep monopoly, and I had enough animals and veg to make up for a lack of sheep, and grain.

I am trying Brian's method, to get some variety in the cards, and all the cards that we used last night, and those that we didn't, were set aside, in a box. Once we cycle through the monster mix decks, then we can reshuffle and begin again.

As our game of the 'Gric ended, Michael and Jon arrived, and after a brief jaunt into the land of Blizzard goodness, we were ready for Shadow's over Camelot. I think I like the game. It was like Werewolf meets Descent (only in the look there are quests to go on part. I like the lack of if I do this, will 2759783 monsters drop down on my head portion) and there seemed to be just as much minor squabbling on the best course of action as Descent, minus the evil overlord, but with the addition of 1/2 traitors. I would need to play it more to get the hang of it, but I was not bad. Don't think I would like it every week, but it was a nice change from always playing games that involve wooden bits (blasphemy!!!!!!)

At 10:13 AM, September 09, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

I got a slow start in Agricola, but the two occupations I finally got down helped quite a bit. One let me get two food anytime someone picked up a grain (one from them, one from supply - and I got one from supply even if I was the one taking the grain), and the other let me get free animals whenever I built fences. This let me increase pastures AND increase animals at the same time - pretty handy. I was diversified, only losing points for not having any sheep, and made a decent showing for my second game. I'm sort of torn on the whole random-card-deal part of the game - if you get bad/useless cards, then you're really fighting an uphill battle...

At 2:10 AM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Ok so on a totally about Monday note.

Rock Band 2.

Release date Sunday.

Dennis claims stores may have it already just not on shelves yet.

If anyone sees it out anywhere, call me. Must have it. Can't stop thinking about it.

My research so far:

Gamestop WILL have it on Sunday. But they don't open until 11am pbbbbbbbbtt.

Walmart KNOWS nothing. Allegedly if I call back Friday morning they may KNOW something.

I saw a random post on the rockband forums that says Blockbuster will have a midnight release set up. I'm planning on calling to confirm this tomorrow.

Jon thinks he may be able to us an old trick to snag an early copy. Sounds good to me.

I've seen videos on youtube of gamebridged gameplay so people DO have copies of the game already. We have to be able to make this happen.

Oh and also: Hysteria is an awesome song for bass. Check a youtube video yes?

At 10:43 AM, September 10, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

I need the instruments for XBOX... I'm going to see if I can trade in my PS2 instruments (PS3 uses the same ones as PS2, so I'm in luck there, as they will still be in demand).

I can't spring for the $200 game + instruments right now - I'm trying to figure out logistics to see if it's reasonable to get just game + guitar to start with, and get the drums/mic later.

At 10:48 AM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Dennis Ugolini said...

But just when RB2 is released...Hurricane Ike will be upon us! Damn you, Nature!

I'll be getting just the game and the drums.

At 11:22 AM, September 10, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

It appears the mic will work between systems - no problem there. Dennis, are you getting the $300 Deluxe drum kit, or just the normal? Any interest in splitting the combo kit with me?

At 12:34 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Dennis Ugolini said...

I'm going with the regular drums. It's more than three times cheaper, I don't expect to be joining a real band anytime soon, and there are reports of cymbal breakage with the deluxe set.

Unfortunatey the bundle doesn't come out for over a month, and as I don't own RB1, I can't wait that long.

At 12:48 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger seanp said...

Shoot - didn't realize the bundle wasn't coming out right away. Back to the drawing board.

At 1:43 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

To update:

The Blockbuster near the corner of Tezel and Culebra will be selling Rock Band 2 at midnight on Sunday (saturday night) for sure.

I haven't gotten a hold of the blockbuster at guilbeau and bandera.

Jon is out on a fact finding mission at Target I think.

Do we really think Ike is gonna screw with us? Boourns.

I want this game.

At 4:50 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Jeff said...

This is funnier than watching people chomp at the bit over Agricola.

At 4:56 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Brian said...

Speaking of -- the answer to the sycophant question has been posted.

At 7:23 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

Ike needs to veer further east or something.

This cannot be happening.


Oh yeah they have hammer on chords now Steve. Looks like lots of fun.

At 10:28 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Michael said...

At 10:52 PM, September 10, 2008, Blogger Ben said...

Hooray! We're back on the dry side of the hurricane. We may survive.


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